Historical resale trends show that July is often the last stable point before the launch season of new smartphones pushes prices downward. The result is a pattern that has repeated itself across several generations of smartphones, regardless of phone brand.
Looking at average monthly resale values across multiple flagship models reveals a common seasonal pattern regardless of individual devices and brands.
The figure shows that resale values remain relatively stable during the first half of the year before beginning a gradual decline around July. Rather than being driven solely by the age of a device, this shift reflects the underlying changing buyer expectations as annual launch events approach.
As more owners prepare to upgrade, used phone supply increases while many buyers postpone purchases in anticipation of new releases. This shift in supply and demand creates downward pressure on resale values well before new devices officially launch.
Looking only at dollar values can be misleading because flagship phones launch at very different prices. Percentage depreciation paints a clearer picture. While every model loses value over time, the pace of that decline varies significantly by brand. Apple continues to retain value relatively well, whereas older Google Pixel and Samsung models experience steeper losses. Yet despite those differences, one pattern remains consistent: depreciation begins accelerating before the annual launch season, not after it.
What stands out is when that decline begins to accelerate.
Across multiple iPhone generations, depreciation tends to become more pronounced shortly before Apple's autumn launch event rather than immediately after new models become available. Samsung, Google and OnePlus display similar behaviour around their own product release cycles. By the time new devices officially reach consumers, much of the pricing adjustment has already taken place.
In other words, the market often reacts to anticipation before it reacts to availability.
That behavioural shift explains why waiting until after a launch announcement doesn't necessarily maximise resale value. Once buyers expect newer models to arrive, demand for older devices begins to soften even if the outgoing phones remain technically competitive.
Why July Matters
July often marks a turning point because of basic supply and demand. Trade-in offers only strengthen this trend.
When Waiting Makes Sense
However, selling before launch season isn't always the right decision.
If a planned battery replacement or screen repair is likely to improve resale value beyond its repair cost, delaying the sale may produce a better overall return. The same applies when manufacturers introduce unusually generous trade-in promotions that exceed prevailing second-hand prices.
Launch schedules can also shift. Delayed product announcements or extended release windows occasionally reduce the seasonal pricing pressure typically observed during late summer. The key is evaluating the reason for waiting rather than assuming that time alone will increase resale value.
The Key Takeaway
The calendar doesn't drive resale prices. Buyer expectations do. July simply happens to sit at the point where those expectations begin shifting across much of the smartphone industry. Historical pricing patterns suggest that sellers often have more control over depreciation than they realise, not by finding the perfect day to sell on a buyback platform, but by avoiding the period when supply rises, demand softens and resale values begin accelerating downward.
July isn't a magic deadline, and no single month guarantees the highest resale price. But across multiple brands and product cycles, the pattern is consistent: markets respond to anticipation long before launch day. Sellers who understand that seasonal rhythm are often better positioned to preserve value than those who simply wait for the next announcement.